PRESS RELEASE
BREAKING: New Poll on Prop 45 Says Measure "Faces Significant Headwinds"
TO Interested Parties
FROM Miranda Everitt and Bella Lalanne
FM3 Research
RE: California Voter Views of Prop 45
DATE August 19, 2026
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently completed a survey of California voters to assess their views of Prop 45. The study shows Prop 45 faces a challenging path to passage. Fewer than half of voters support it after hearing the ballot label, and fewer than two in five are in favor after messaging for and against the measure.
Key findings include:
Prop 45 has support from fewer than half of California voters. Given the language of the measure as it will appear on ballots in November (shown below), 49% of voters say they would vote “yes” – with most of that support tentative. About one in seven are undecided.
MODIFIES ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW FOR CERTAIN PROJECTS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Amends California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) to expedite environmental review for certain projects (including most housing, transportation, water, and health projects) by setting deadlines to complete environmental review and resolve lawsuits challenging project approvals. Fiscal Impact: Initial costs for state and local governments, likely in the high tens of millions of dollars–potentially exceeding $100 million—annually, partly covered by fees. Uncertain, potentially more significant positive or negative longer-term fiscal effects. Supporters: California Children’s Hospital Association; California Water Association; California Council for Affordable Housing. Opponents: Coalition for Clean Air; CA Environmental Voters; Physicians for Social Responsibility, LA; National Wildlife Federation.
The measure is vulnerable to negative messaging. Figure 2 below shows the progression of support after voters hear positive and negative messaging. Support drops 11 points, to 38%, and the “no” share approaches a majority.
In sum, Prop 45 faces significant headwinds, including low support based on ballot language and significant vulnerability to negative messaging.
Methodology: From August 8-16, 2026, FM3 completed 1,056 online and telephone interviews with likely November 2026 voters in California, inclusive of oversamples of 154 Black and 192 Asian/Pacific Islander voters. The margin of sampling error for the study is +/-3.5% at the 95% confidence level; margins of error for population subgroups within the sample will be higher. Due to rounding, not all totals will sum to 100%.